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Mapped Projection Update: Abacus 10/8-11 and Nanos 10/10-12

The following polls have been added to the model:Abacus' 10/8-11 national poll (current weight among national polls: 27%)Nanos' 10/10-12 national poll (current weight among national polls: 37%)For a...

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Trends 2019: Sixth Instalment

For new readers: these trends are different - and I would say more meaningful - than the ones you might see elsewhere, since they are retroactively recomputed* when old data becomes available. Thus, my...

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Projection Update: Nanos 10/11-13

The following poll has been added to the model:Nanos' 10/11-13 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 52%)For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection...

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Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/11-13

The following poll has been added to the model:Mainstreet's 10/11-13 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 50%)For a full list of included polls, see previous...

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Projection Update: Ipsos 10/11-13 and Mainstreet's Sherbrooke Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:Global News Ipsos' 10/11-13 national poll (national and Bloc QC results from Global News article only; current weight among national polls:...

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Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/12-14 and Forum 10/11 QC Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:Mainstreet's 10/12-14 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 51%)Forum's 10/11 QC pollFor a full list of included...

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Projection Update: Angus Reid 10/12-15

The following poll has been added to the model:Angus Reid's 10/12-15 national poll (current weight among national polls: 39%)For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.Note: I...

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Projection Update: Nanos 10/12-15 and Mainstreet 10/9 Trois-Rivières Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:Nanos' 10/12-15 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 20%)Mainstreet's 10/9 Trois-Rivières pollFor a full list of...

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Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/13-15

The following poll has been added to the model:Mainstreet's 10/13-15 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 43%)For a full list of included polls, see previous...

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Projection Update: EKOS 10/11-15

The following poll has been added to the model:EKOS' 10/11-15 national poll (current weight among national polls: 14%)For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.A new EKOS poll is...

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Projection Update: Nanos 10/13-16

The following poll has been added to the model:Nanos' 10/13-16 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 29%)For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection...

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Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/14-16

The following poll has been added to the model:Mainstreet's 10/14-16 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 47%)For a full list of included polls, see previous...

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Projection Update: Forum 10/16

The following poll has been added to the model:Forum's 10/16 national poll (current weight among national polls: 31%)For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.This Forum poll is...

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Projection Update: DART 10/16, Nanos 10/15-17, Léger 10/13-15 QC Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:DART's 10/16 national poll (current weight among national polls: 25%)Nanos' 10/15-17 national poll (national results only; current weight among national...

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Projection Update: EKOS 10/15-17, Mainstreet 10/15-17

The following polls have been added to the model:EKOS' 10/15-17 national poll (current weight among national polls: 18%)Mainstreet's 10/15-17 national poll (national results only; current weight among...

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Projection Update: Innovative 10/15-17, Campaign Research 10/16-18

The following polls have been added to the model:Innovative's 10/15-17 national polls (current weight among national polls: 13% and 8%)Campaign Research's 10/16-18 national poll (national results only;...

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Projection Update: Nanos 10/16-18, Insights West 10/13-16 BC Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:Nanos' 10/16-18 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 19%)Insights West's 10/13-16 BC pollMainstreet's 10/9...

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Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/16-18 and Riding Polls, QC Regional Adjustments

The following polls have been added to the model:Mainstreet's 10/16-18 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 19%)Mainstreet's 10/? Québec pollMainstreet's 10/15...

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Projection Update: Campaign Research 10/16-19

The following poll has been added to the model:Campaign Research's 10/16-19 national poll (current weight among national polls: 48%)For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection...

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Projection Update: Léger 10/17-18 and Nanos 10/17-19

The following polls have been added to the model:Léger's 10/17-18 national poll (current weight among national polls: 14%)Nanos' 10/17-19 national poll (national results only; current weight among...

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Mapped Projection Update: Campaign Research 10/16-20, Abacus 10/17-19, Ipsos...

The following polls have been added to the model:Campaign Research's 10/16-20 national poll (current weight among national polls: 35%)Abacus' 10/17-19 national poll (current weight among national...

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Trends 2019: Seventh and Final Instalment

For new readers: these trends are different - and I would say more meaningful - than the ones you might see elsewhere, since they are retroactively recomputed* when old data becomes available. Thus, my...

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FINAL 2019 Projection: \o/

The following polls have been added to the model:Mainstreet's 10/19-20 national poll (current weight among national polls: 30%)Research Co's 10/18-20 national poll (current weight among national polls:...

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Projection by Region

Here are some details of the final projection by region. I will pick one riding per region where either I am skeptical of the projection, or that will be interesting to watch tonight.Atlantic Canada...

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2019 Result Map

Here is a map of the results of the 2019 General Election, as well as a potential seating plan (before the election of the Speaker). Over the next few weeks, I will add a series of analysis posts, so...

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